Title: Against the Gods – The remarkable story of Risk

Author: Peter L. Bernstein

Pages: 337

Hi all,

When I read the title of the book, I had a different expectation of the book than when I read reviews and finally the book. It is misleading, but the point being discussed is quite different.

It discusses the stages our forefathers gradually underwent to ultimately develop the risk management tools and way of thought that we have today.

• In the early phases of life, for any dangerous activity undertaken, its outcome was only known by the gods. The people were thus at the mercy of fate and were mostly not inclined to take some risks.
• However, with the Hindu-Arabic numbers making their way to Europe (making calculations more simple than the Roman numerals), as well as with the mindset change (from being completely at the mercy of our god to being also somewhat responsible for our own futures) mankind suddenly sought out to undertake more risk and different ways to mitigate risky ventures.

The Renaissance period (about mid-14th to 17th century AD) was a time when people started to move beyond the known to try out new things that was previously thought too risky and not worthwhile exploring. Also, since they could start to measure the probability of the risky event occurring, they started implementing counter measures to reduce the probability of the risk materializing (or reduce its effects).

It clearly discusses how the concept of probability was enhanced and improved throughout the centuries as different individuals made different contributions to the theory and implemented it.

The book is split into the following chapters:

• Introduction (pg. 1)
• To 1200 AD: Beginnings
  • 1. The winds of the Greeks the roll of the dice (pg. 11)
  • 2. As easy as I, II, III (pg. 23)
• 1200 AD – 1700 AD: A thousand outstanding facts
  • 3. The Renaissance gambler (pg. 39)
  • 4. The French connection (pg. 57)
  • 5. The remarkable notions of the remarkable notions man (pg. 73)
• 1700 AD – 1900 AD: Measurement unlimited
  • 6. Considering the notions of man (pg. 99)
  • 7. The search for moral certainty (pg. 116)
  • 8. The supreme law of unreason (pg. 135)
  • 9. The man with the sprained brain (pg. 152)
  • 10. Peapods and perils (pg. 172)
  • 11. The fabric of felicity (pg. 187)
• 1900 AD – 1960 AD: Clouds of vagueness and demand for precision
  • 12. The measure of our ignorance (pg. 197)
  • 13. The radically distinct notion (pg. 215)
  • 14. The man who counted everything except calories (pg. 231)
  • 15. The strange case of the anonymous stockbroker (pg. 247)
• Degrees of belief: Exploring uncertainty
  • 16. The failure of invariance (pg. 269)
  • 17. The theory police (pg. 284)
  • 18. The fantastic system of side bets (pg. 304)
  • 19. Awaiting the wildness (pg. 329)

It is quite remarkable to see how much our lives have changed, merely as a result of people using different tools (i.e. new numbering system) and being open to think differently from old beliefs (i.e. that all risky ventures’ outcomes are in the hands of the gods alone and that we cannot do something ourselves to help reduce some risks).

This is not to say that they gave way to religion completely, but that they saw that they could also actively contribute in taking risk and reduce it.

Although it does become quite academic towards the end, it is still interesting to see the links how people used the work of earlier scientists to develop their own ideas.

Summary:

Interesting to say the very least, since significant change came about as a result of little changes elsewhere in time. It shows that risk is not something to be feared, but something that offers opportunity. The book becomes more academic towards the end, so it changes its thread from story to academic. Therefore, the book will receive a rating of 4,25/5.

Happy reading!!! Happy New Year! 🙂

Link (German): https://amzn.to/4pg4LEa

Link (English): https://amzn.to/3MXonzw